000 
axpz20 knhc 202151
twdep 

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Feb 20 2019

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...

A weak surface trough extends from 06n82w to 02n95w to 03n110w. 
The ITCZ continues from 03n110w to 02n126w to 02n140w. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 0n to 04n between 86w and 103w.

...Discussion...

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...  

A strong persistent ridge continues to dominate the offshore 
forecast waters west of Baja California, and extends to just 
west of the revillagigedo islands. Moderate to locally fresh NW 
to N winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft in NW swell are noted across 
the region under the influence of the ridge. On Thu, a cold 
front moving across the waters N of Punta eugenia will support 
fresh to strong W to NW winds and a new set of long period NW 
swell, with seas in the range of 9 to 13 ft. Strong winds off 
the coast of Baja California norte are expected to diminish to 
20 kt or less by Fri morning. However, seas of 8 to 12 ft will 
continue to move se, reaching Cabo San Lucas Sat before 
subsiding. Light to gentle NW winds with seas to 4 ft will 
dominate across the offshores of baja during the weekend and 
early next week.  

Gulf of california: winds and seas are forecast to increase 
across the northern Gulf of California tonight through Fri 
morning as the aforementioned cold front move across the area. 
Expect SW to W winds in the 20 to 30 kt range ahead of the 
front, with mainly fresh N winds behind the front. Seas are 
forecast to build to near 8 or 9 ft Thu through early Fri. 
Moderate to locally fresh winds will then dominate the Gulf 
waters through Tue with lighter winds mainly across the waters N 
of 29n.

Gulf of tehuantepec: the next gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is expected to begin by Sat afternoon as a ridge 
builds across the western Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds 
will increase to gale force on Sun night but will decrease to 30 
kt on Mon morning as winds N of the area shift from northerlies 
to E-se winds. Winds and seas will diminish below advisory 
criteria on Tue night. 

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Gulf of papagayo: fresh to near gale force winds are forecast 
across the Gulf of papagayo most of the forecast period, but 
mainly during the overnight and early morning hours, with the 
assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow, and some added 
enhancement from the easterly gradient flow from the SW 
Caribbean. Seas will build to 9 ft through Mon night. A stronger 
gap wind event is likely on Tue morning covering the entire 
offshores of Nicaragua and extending to the offshores of El 
Salvador. Seas during this period are forecast to reach 11 ft. 

Gulf of panama: mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds are 
expected across the Gulf of Panama through Mon, with seas of 3 
to 5 ft tonight, and 2 to 4 ft the remainder of the forecast 
period. On Tue, fresh winds with seas to 5 ft are expected.

Remainder of the area... 

Strong high pressure located well north-northeast of the Hawaiian
islands will move ENE and weaken some during the next 24 hours. 
Its ridge axis extends across the northern forecast waters to 
just west the revillagigedo islands. The pressure difference 
between this ridge and broad low pressure lingering NE the 
Hawaiian islands is tightening the pressure gradient across the 
west-central waters, particularly from 12n to 23n W of 127w 
based on the latest scatterometer data. Seas generated by these 
winds, combined with long period NW swell are resulting in an 
area of seas of 8 to 9 ft covering most of the waters W of 112w. 
The areal extent of these winds will diminish on Thu as the low 
pressure north of the Hawaiian islands tracks northward. Seas 
will gradually subside through the weekend. Otherwise, a new set 
of long period NW swell will reach the NE waters on Thu with 
seas of 8 to 13 ft mainly in the area N of 20n E of 127w.

$$
Ramos



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